The ‘Day Zero’ Threat Enviroment: Modern Threat Vectors, Adversary Shaping Operations and the Article V Threshold
The rapid growth of cyber technologies over the past quarter century has opened myriad avenues to undermine, destabilize and attack nations and populations without the use of armed force. These hostile activities have also become more difficult to detect and to attribute to the perpetrators, making the modern security environment much more ‘foggy’ than in the past. Panel one will plant the seeds for discussion about how such attacks might be recognized, and when they are to be considered equal to an ‘armed attack?’
Joint Air Power in the Vanguard of NATO´s Response: Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Challenges
The second panel will explore some of the challenges presented by the ambiguous security environment, including, but not limited to: hardening and resilience of NATO’s command and force structure; their protection in a contested environment; movement and sustainment of large forces across Europe; cohesiveness and responsiveness of the North Atlantic Council to rapidly take decisions and to authorize appropriate response options to recognized hostile activity that may not cross the tripwire of armed attack.
Does NATO Have the Required Mindset to Fight on Day Zero?
NATO war-fighting over the past twenty-five years has been exclusively against militarily inferior adversaries. Some would argue this has created overconfidence in the Alliance and an aversion to casualties that filtered not only into the psyche of the populations and the suspension of compulsory military service in many of our countries, but into military training and exercise scenarios as well. Panel three will examine these aspects and discuss as well as the necessary backing of our populations to re-orientate NATO back to its core tasks.
How Can NATO Address Emerging Security Challenges Using Air and Space Power?
The final panel will examine the utility of Joint Air and Space Power in addressing the challenges discussed the day prior, particularly in situations where there may not be an armed force or attack to respond to in kind. This may lead to discussions about the tools required to compete with future adversaries and how best to invest current defence budgets, whether in future technologies or modernization of existing forces; where is the ‘right’ balance; as well as how we can benefi t from greater EU-NATO cooperation.