NATO Allies represent 50% of the world’s economic power. And 50% of the world’s military might. Throughout its 75 years, NATO has always adapted to the changing security climate. It takes leadership to explain the tough choices.

Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military Committee, at the Berlin Security Conference, 20 November 2024

Introduction

NATO stands at a strategic inflection point, and the Alliance’s ability to maintain strategic deterrence and credible warfighting capabilities hinges on its capacity to anticipate, adapt, and implement decisive operational and structural reforms. This panel explores an urgent and fundamental question: If war were certain within a decade, what strategic, operational, and technological priorities should NATO pursue to ensure comprehensive readiness?

This discussion is not merely theoretical but a strategic necessity. The evolving threat landscape underscores the need for targeted, evidence-based policy recommendations that drive tangible improvements in NATO’s warfighting effectiveness. By convening senior military leaders, policymakers, and defence analysts, this session aims to provide actionable insights that contribute to NATO’s operational, structural, and technological evolution, ensuring the Alliance’s continued efficacy as a collective security provider in an era of systemic threats.¹

NATO in an Era of Complex and Accelerated Threats

The contemporary battlespace is transformed by multi-domain convergence, wherein adversaries employ integrated hybrid strategies encompassing cyber, space, economic, and information warfare. Near-peer competitors leverage asymmetric tactics, coercive diplomacy, and rapid technological innovation to challenge NATO’s superiority and operational cohesion.² Consequently, the Alliance must transition from a reactive posture to a proactive framework that prioritises agility and resilience.

Events taking place in the Russia-Ukraine war indicate that traditional modernisation projects, characterized by protracted development cycles, are inadequate. Instead, NATO must implement rapid force adaptation strategies emphasizing near-term operational enhancements. This panel will explore key areas where accelerated investment and doctrinal transformation can yield decisive strategic advantages, including force posture recalibration, multinational force integration, and integrating emerging technologies into NATO’s defence architecture.

Strategic Priorities for Discussion

Recalibrating NATO’s Force Posture and Readiness

Effective deterrence relies on credible force deployment, scalable reinforcement structures, and a coherent escalation management framework. However, disparities in readiness and response times amongst member states create vulnerabilities that adversaries will seek to exploit.³ A key component of NATO’s strategic planning involves optimising its force posture in critical regions such as the Baltic states, the Arctic, and the Black Sea to counter emerging threats. This requires thoroughly reassessing forward deployment strategies to ensure a robust and adaptable presence.

Equally vital is the scalability of force mobilisation—striking the right balance between permanent troops, rotational deployments, and rapid reinforcement mechanisms is essential for maintaining readiness without overextending resources. Additionally, NATO must strengthen its logistical resilience by investing in prepositioned stockpiles, enhancing supply chain redundancies, and developing efficient mobility corridors. Addressing these challenges is crucial for sustaining operational effectiveness in a rapidly evolving security landscape.

Modernizing NATO’s Command and Control (C2) Frameworks

Operational tempo and decision dominance are essential for maintaining battlefield superiority in a contested environment. NATO must optimise its command structures to ensure agility, resilience, and seamless interoperability across all warfighting domains.⁴

Key discussion areas focus on enhancing NATO’s multi-domain C2 capabilities to maintain operational superiority in an increasingly complex security environment. A priority is accelerating decision-making cycles, which could be achieved by leveraging digitalisation to improve command agility and operational responsiveness. Equally important is the integration of emerging technologies—artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, and automated analytics have the potential to significantly enhance NATO’s C2 structures, specifically from a multi-domain operations (MDO) perspective. Refining C2 frameworks to enable seamless coordination across air, land, maritime, cyber, and space domains will ensure a fully integrated and responsive operational approach.

Enhancing Defence Acquisition and Technological Superiority

As discussed in the previous essay, NATO’s current acquisition processes often lag the rapid pace of technological evolution and adversarial innovation cycles.⁵ To sustain a decisive technological edge, NATO must adopt a proactive approach to capability development and innovation. A key priority is expediting procurement mechanisms to accelerate acquisition cycles for emerging technologies while maintaining interoperability across member states. Streamlining these processes will ensure that NATO remains agile in responding to evolving threats.

Equally important is expanding public-private collaboration, including reinforcing the defence industrial base. As the private sector begins to outpace NATO’s investment schedule, the Alliance needs to leverage its expertise in AI, quantum computing, cyber defence, and autonomous systems to remain competitive in these arenas.

Countering Cyber and Hybrid Warfare Threats

Future conflicts will extend far beyond conventional battlefields, encompassing cyber warfare, information operations, and economic coercion. These multidimensional threats require NATO to adopt a comprehensive and forward-thinking approach to resilience and defence.

• Strengthening Cyber Deterrence and Response: Establishing a credible framework that dissuades adversaries from launching cyberattacks while ensuring a swift and effective response when necessary.⁶
• Clarifying Cyber Operations Doctrine: NATO must focus on “operationalising cyber” by fully integrating these capabilities within its overarching strategic doctrine, enabling seamless coordination across all domains of conflict.⁷ The discussion should also explore how cyber can be integrated as a flexible deterrent option and a tool for de-escalation, alongside its role in active conflict across all domains.
• Neutralizing Disinformation and Influence Operations: Developing proactive strategies to detect, counter, and pre-empt such campaigns, leveraging technological innovation, intelligence-sharing, and strategic communication efforts. Adversaries increasingly use these operations to undermine democratic institutions and public trust.⁸

Reinforcing Alliance Cohesion and Burden Sharing

The sustainability of NATO’s deterrence framework relies not only on maintaining robust military capabilities but also on ensuring political cohesion and equitable burden sharing among its member states.⁹ Strengthening these foundations is essential for reinforcing collective security and maintaining NATO’s credibility. Options include:

• Defence Spending Commitments: Implementing effective policy measures to ensure that all member states meet or exceed the 2% GDP threshold for defence expenditure.
• Enhancing Joint Training and Readiness Initiatives: Institutionalising multinational training programmes that improve operational cohesion and interoperability across Allied forces. Regular exercises, combined force integration, and knowledge-sharing will ensure rapid and effective responses to emerging threats.¹⁰
• Reevaluating NATO’s Nuclear Posture: Determining the role its nuclear deterrence capabilities should play in reinforcing collective defence commitments. As geopolitical dynamics evolve, NATO must ensure its nuclear deterrence strategy remains credible, flexible, and aligned with broader security objectives.¹¹

Strengthening Societal and Economic Resilience

Modern conflict requires a comprehensive whole-of-society approach that integrates military, economic, and civil resilience strategies to safeguard national and Allied security.¹² As adversaries increasingly employ hybrid tactics to exploit vulnerabilities, NATO must prioritise strengthening resilience across all domains.

Key focus areas include:

• Protection of Critical Infrastructure: Safeguarding energy, communications, and transportation networks, which are prime targets for cyberattacks, sabotage, and other forms of disruption. Enhancing their resilience requires coordinated civil-military measures, redundant systems, and improved cybersecurity protocols to mitigate risks and ensure operational continuity.¹³
• Ensuring Governance Continuity: Establishing robust policy frameworks to guarantee governance continuity in high-threat scenarios. This involves strengthening emergency response mechanisms, securing digital government operations, and ensuring leadership succession plans are in place to maintain stability, public confidence, and effective decision-making.
• Expanding Public-Private Partnerships: Fortifying supply chain resilience and economic stability by collaborating with industry leaders. This will help NATO secure critical resources, enhance information-sharing on emerging threats, and develop contingency plans for economic disruptions.¹⁴

The Imperative for Immediate Action

This panel aims to produce tangible, high-impact recommendations that NATO can operationalise within a defined timeframe. Panellists will be asked to present their three highest-priority recommendations, each adhering to the following criteria:

• Operational Feasibility – Implementable within a 1–10-year window.
• Strategic Impact – Enhancing NATO’s deterrence, warfighting readiness, collective defence, and resilience.
• Political and Institutional Viability – Achievable within NATO’s existing decision-making frameworks.

Conclusion

The ‘Next 10 Years’ Thought Experiment represents an urgent call to action. NATO cannot afford strategic stagnation; instead, the Alliance must adopt a forward-leaning posture that prioritises rapid adaptation, innovation, and structural resilience. By challenging conventional paradigms and advancing concrete, actionable policy recommendations, this discussion must serve as a catalyst for meaningful transformation within NATO’s strategic framework.

As NATO navigates an increasingly volatile security landscape, today’s decisions will define the Alliance’s ability to deter, defend, and, if necessary, triumph in future conflicts.

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