Introduction

The rapid evolution of disruptive military technologies is reshaping the operational landscape of modern warfare. Emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), Autonomous Collaborative Platforms (ACP), hypersonic weapons, and space warfare capabilities will continue to influence the design, employment, command and control (C2), and survivability of future air and space assets. To remain effective in an increasingly tech-centric and networked battlespace, NATO must seamlessly integrate these advancements into its doctrine, strategy, and tactical execution. The lower cost of some of these technologies also renders them more accessible, challenging previously held advantages.

Adversaries are actively investing in these emerging technologies, risking NATO’s technological advantage unless the Alliance acts quickly. A perceived lack of technological pre-eminence weakens NATO’s deterrence capabilities, which could destabilize the security environment and increase the risk of conflict. Importantly, these technologies are not isolated; they are deeply interconnected, leveraging and enhancing one another to create even greater tactical and strategic impacts.

Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Warfare

AI is the most transformative force reshaping the battlespace, revolutionizing decision-making, intelligence collection, and autonomous systems at an unprecedented scale. AI-powered battle management systems can process vast amounts of data from billions of multi-domain sensors in real time, providing commanders with the enhanced situational awareness and optimized decision-making needed to disrupt an enemy’s OODA loop. Moreover, AI-driven systems enable predictive maintenance, logistics automation, and cyber defence, making military operations more effective and resilient. For example, AI can be used to detect anomalies in network traffic that may indicate a cyber-attack and automate responses.

However, AI also presents unique challenges, such as ethical concerns, accountability of actions, the quality of training data, and hallucinations. The complexity of some AI algorithms makes it difficult to understand how they arrive at their decisions, making it difficult, if not impossible, for operators to understand the rationale behind the AI’s analysis and conclusions. This lack of transparency makes it hard to ensure accountability and identify potential errors. The failure to address the ethical, accountability, and data quality challenges associated with AI in military applications carries profound risks, including an erosion of trust in AI systems, an increased risk of errors, ethical violations, and the potential for unintended escalation of conflict. Despite these challenges, AI is moving rapidly forward, and this AI-driven decision-making is the brain that will command the Autonomous Collaborative Platforms discussed next.

Autonomous Collaborative Platforms and Drone Swarms

Autonomous Collaborative Platforms (ACP) are unmanned aerial systems that work autonomously or in concert with manned platforms to extend capabilities and increase operational effectiveness. ACPs are a particularly disruptive force, fundamentally altering how military operations are conducted by moving away from traditional, centralized control towards distributed, networked, and autonomous systems. ACPs leverage AI to conduct operations that support Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance (ISR), Electronic Warfare (EW), and kinetic strikes autonomously or with a human in or on the loop. The integration of ACPs into combat can be a force multiplier, allowing military forces to distribute lethality and enhance redundancy while reducing the risk for human operators in high-threat environments.

A particularly concerning tactical implication is the proliferation of drone swarming tactics. These swarms can consist of numerous, inexpensive drones capable of overwhelming traditional air defence systems designed to engage fewer, more expensive targets. The proliferation of drone technology makes it accessible to both state and non-state actors, enabling asymmetric warfare tactics that can challenge NATO’s conventional military superiority.

Despite their significant advantages, ACPs are vulnerable to hacking and manipulation, which could allow adversaries to take control of the platforms or disrupt their operations. The AI within ACPs can be tricked, or their data corrupted, leading to unpredictable and dangerous actions. Other challenges include dependence on high-speed datalinks, ethical concerns related to Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (LAWS), and susceptibility to EW and cyber-attacks. Furthermore, the effectiveness of these platforms is entirely dependent on resilient communication networks, many of which rely on the increasingly contested domain of space.

Hypersonic Weapons

Hypersonic weapons are missiles capable of traveling at speeds exceeding Mach 5, presenting a significant shift in modern warfare. While the concept of hypersonic flight is decades old, its application in manoeuvrable weapon systems is a recent and disruptive development. Unlike traditional ballistic missiles that follow a predictable trajectory, hypersonic weapons are designed to be manoeuvrable, allowing them to change course during flight. This combination of high speed and manoeuvrability poses significant challenges for existing missile defence systems, making them difficult to detect and intercept. For example, the Russian Avangard hypersonic weapon system can reportedly travel at speeds up to Mach 27 and carry both conventional and nuclear payloads.

Hypersonic weapons present a significant disruptive challenge to NATO, as their speed, manoeuvrability, and altitude make critical infrastructure, such as C2 centres, air bases, and naval ports, vulnerable to rapid and precise strikes. From a tactical and operational perspective, the emergence of hypersonic weapons will necessitate new countermeasures, early warning systems, and adjustments to C2 structures that enable a swift response. Countering this threat effectively will demand a robust, persistent sensor network, placing even greater importance on NATO’s space-based capabilities.

Space Warfare

Space has become a critical domain for military operations, and nations are reliant on space-based systems for a wide range of military capabilities. It is increasingly a contested domain, with military powers investing heavily in space-based assets for communications, navigation, ISR, and offensive operations. Satellites provide continuous, global coverage, enabling persistent monitoring and real-time surveillance of adversary activities. A prime example of a disruptive space technology is the development of on-orbit servicing, assembly, and manufacturing (OSAM) capabilities, which allow for refuelling, repairs, and upgrades, extending a satellite’s operational life.

The proliferation of anti-satellite (ASAT) weapons, directed-energy systems, and electronic warfare capabilities underscores the importance that major powers are placing on space superiority. These weapons can physically destroy or disable satellites, disrupting vital communication, navigation, and surveillance capabilities. This poses a direct threat to NATO’s operational effectiveness, which is deeply reliant on space-based systems for situational awareness and C2. Assured access to the space domain is fundamental to NATO’s credibility. As space warfare capabilities advance, new doctrines will be required to ensure the effective use of assets while mitigating vulnerabilities to adversarial threats.

Conclusion

The future of air and space warfare will be shaped by the continuous evolution of AI, ACPs, hypersonic weapons, and space warfare capabilities. On one hand, they offer enhanced operational effectiveness, force multiplication, and strategic deterrence. On the other, they come with ethical concerns, increased risks of arms proliferation, and susceptibility to cyber threats.

These emerging and disruptive technologies are creating significant challenges for NATO, as they provide potential adversaries with new and effective ways to undermine the Alliance’s traditional strengths. The proliferation of low-cost emerging technologies is democratizing access to advanced capabilities, disrupting the battlespace, and shifting a balance of power that has traditionally favoured the Alliance.

The adoption and optimization of these disruptive technologies will demand improved interoperability among allied forces, and meticulous policy and operational planning that maximizes their benefits while mitigating the associated risks. By embracing innovation and adaptability, allied air and space forces can navigate the challenges of the tech horizon. Failure to do so would have severe consequences, undermining NATO’s ability to maintain air and space superiority and defend the Alliance’s interests in the conflicts of the 21st century.