Introduction

We are proud of the incredible work the JAPCC has accomplished over the last year. In 2025, our research and analysis remained focused on the conflict in Ukraine and NATO’s collective defence in Eastern Europe. This focus is driven by the significant risks of large-scale conflict at the border. Our support for these efforts is essential and will continue as long as necessary. However, as the Alliance addresses the fires burning to the east, our Centre of Excellence must also look past the smoke, ensuring that our attention to our near borders does not blind us to the embers smouldering elsewhere.

To that end, at JAPCC we are shifting from a reactive scan across the border to a proactive scan of emerging threats on the horizon. We see this in the Arctic, for instance, where receding ice opens new avenues for strategic competition. We also observe this along key trade routes from the Red Sea to the Indo-Pacific, where freedom of navigation is being challenged. Above us, the space domain is growing increasingly contested. Consequently, for the first time in our history, we have established an Annual Theme to guide our research and discussions: Air Power at the Edge: Securing NATO’s New Frontiers.

This theme explores the physical and conceptual boundaries of air and space power employment. The ‘Edge’ is not simply a reference to front lines. It includes the geographic edge, extending our operational reach into the High North and Indo-Pacific; the vertical edge, surpassing traditional altitude boundaries into near-space; the cognitive edge, where, despite the rise of artificial intelligence (AI), the human mind remains our ultimate asymmetric advantage; and it is the digital and logistical edge, where we must shoot, move, and communicate in austere environments where our supply chains are contested. This year, we will assess how NATO operates at these limits and advances into new frontiers.

The Geographic Frontier

Our first step is to challenge our mental maps, beginning in the Arctic. For too long, we have accepted an artificial divide: a ‘North American Arctic’ secured by North American Aerospace Defense Command (NORAD), and a ‘European High North’ defended by NATO. While the environmental characteristics of these subregions differ, we plan to address the potential vulnerabilities created by this operational split, which creates a ‘seam’ in command authorities, data sharing, and situational awareness. This year, the JAPCC will explore how to close that seam and move towards a unified, trans-polar defence architecture. Our goal is to allow air power and information to flow without friction.

Simultaneously, we will turn our eyes toward the Indo-Pacific. This region is outside our traditional treaty area, but recent NATO summits underscore a fundamental truth: the security of the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-Pacific is increasingly interconnected. In this theatre, the Edge refers to the tyranny of distance. The Indo-Pacific therefore offers us lessons of scale, such as how to move, disperse, sustain, and protect forces across vast distances. It also demonstrates the application of Agile Combat Employment (ACE) across island chains versus the European continent, and the logistics networks needed for austere locations. Most importantly, we will consider how stronger Indo-Pacific partnerships can reinforce deterrence, uphold shared norms, and safeguard the global commons.

The Vertical Frontier

Currently, the Alliance operates in two main altitude bands: traditional air power (up to about 20 km) and space power (above the 100 km Kármán line). We think there is a strategic ‘seam’ in between those levels. The near-space domain is emerging as a frontier for hypersonics, high-altitude platform systems (HAPS), and very low Earth orbit (VLEO) technologies. This region offers opportunities for surveillance and rapid strike, but it also creates strategic ambiguity. It is too high for air traffic regulations and too low for current space treaties, creating potential blind spots in both sensor coverage and international governance. As activity in this zone increases, NATO must address this vertical gap before competitors do.

The Digital and Energy Frontiers

Beyond geography and orbits, we must also address the Digital Frontier. Future conflicts will require robust data processing at the tactical edge instead of relying on centralised headquarters. This shift to ‘Edge Computing’ is key to maintaining decision superiority in contested and degraded environments.

We must also consider the Energy Frontier. Edge data processing and projecting air power over long distances strains logistics if we rely solely on traditional fuels. Alternatives such as modular micro-reactors and synthetic fuels may help. Ultimately, without resilient power and rapid infrastructure, our advanced platforms cannot be sustained.

The Cognitive Frontier

This year, we will also examine the Cognitive Frontier. Despite advances in AI and autonomous warfare, war remains a human endeavour. As the tempo of combat accelerates, decisions will occur at machine speed and personnel will face greater pressure. We will explore how we train for uncertainty, build resilience against cognitive warfare, and optimise decision-making under extreme stress. While we develop sixth-generation fighters, we must also ensure we are preparing sixth-generation minds. Securing the cognitive frontier requires investment in our military culture, exercises, and readiness to ensure our people remain our greatest advantage.

We look forward to a year of bold ideas. In 2026, you will find thought-provoking research on our website and in this journal, addressing these topics in depth. This theme will build toward our flagship event, the 2026 Joint Air and Space Power Conference, which will bring together leading experts to discuss Air Power at the Edge.

We cannot explore these frontiers alone. If you have relevant expertise or think we have overlooked an important area, we want to hear from you. Visit japcc.org and join the conversation. The world is changing fast, and the Alliance needs your perspective.